John
Bass
the Ambassador of the United States to Turkey, and John Espinoza, the U.S. Consul to Adana, were in the southeastern city of Diyarbakır on March 8-10. They conducted important meetings there.
They have met with a group consisting of a limited number of guests including selected opinion leaders of the city, political representatives and academics.
I put this meeting under the microscope, as it is directly related to the June 7 general elections and the resolution process.
I spoke with participants of the meeting and learned about the messages that were conveyed. Significant points came up, hence the reason why I wanted to share it. Since the participants of the meeting preferred to remain anonymous, I respect their decision and will not be mentioning their names. This is nothing to create conspiracy theories out of, but it is just that a sensitivity came up as the meeting was exclusive and its scope was rather narrow. And I can do nothing about it, but respect the decision.
The meeting focuses on two main points.
The resolution process
Whether the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) will be able to pass the election threshold or not.
The U.S. ambassador mostly prefers to listen. He directs questions to participants about the potential of HDP passing the election threshold. He wants to learn where Turkey is headed to, and learn their opinions about what is going on with the resolution process. Amongst the participants, while there are some who defend the idea that the HDP will pass the threshold, others say the possibility is highly unlikely.
More positive evaluations are made about the reconciliation process. The fact that the process is supported by the public and must proceed is underscored.
Towards the end of the meeting, the ambassador takes the floor and gives three significant messages.
He does not say anything about whether or not the HDP will be able to pass the election threshold. However, he turns to the HDP supporters and says, “No party will be able to receive votes from the people through fear and blackmailing. This cannot be a long-term policy. Promise hope to people if you want votes.”
The resolution process must continue. As the U.S., we strongly support the resolution process.
He turns towards HDP supporters again and says, “There is no room for conflict here whatsoever. Turkey is a rare gem in the region, as it is one of the few stable countries. This feature of Turkey must be preserved.”
We can't tell if such suggestions had an effect on HDP co-chairman Selahattin Demirtaş's softening the tone of his rhetoric, but we can surely say that his tone was softened.
The U.S. ambassador also makes a clear warning about terrorism and violence:
“If you turn to terrorism, you will not be able to describe this to the West. Because Turkey is not Iran, Iraq or Syria.”
At one instance, during his talk, Ambassador Bass says, “Yes, there are problems in Turkey and we are aware of this” and says some of these are “directed towards being a one-man state,” but hesitates to elaborate on this. He prefers to give positive messages regarding Turkey's role.
Two points come forward in the upcoming elections:
Will the HDP pass the election threshold?
Will the AK Party obtain enough votes to bring a presidential system to Turkey?
An interesting balance was revealed regarding the HDP's possibility to pass the threshold. HDP is able to garner votes from the Kurds, but at this stage, the Kurdish votes are not sufficient for the party to pass the threshold. The HDP needs Alevi votes in order to pass the threshold. While the party had steered towards the conservatives in the past elections, HDP is now taking a different course and attempting to obtain votes from the Leftists and Alevis. By doing this, they had partially started to see results, as the Alevi votes for HDP were on a rise. While Alevi votes accounted for 2.5 percent of HDP's votes, in recent days they reached up to 14 percent, up until last week. Why last week? Because the Republican People's Party (CHP) had primaries and the Alevi candidates displayed great success. This stopped the transfer of Alevi votes to HDP. It would be beneficial to watch if this will be permanent or temporary. Because the HDP will not be able to pass the election threshold if it does not receive votes from Turkey's Alevi community. HDP needs their votes to pass the threshold. They are aware of this too. Even in the Aegean city of İzmir, they are planning to come up with a strong Alevi candidate to compete with CHP chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
With regards to the talks about the presidential system, I would again like to look through the Kurdish lens under the light of John Espinoza's meetings in Diyarbakır in early 2015.
An opinion leader, who is renowned in the region for his intellectual repertory, says, “I look optimistically towards a presidential system. We need a change in the system, because we, as Kurds, have suffered a great deal for 80 years because of the existing system.” Consul Espinoza objects and says, “But this is a step towards a one-man state.” I would like to convey the rest of the dialogue in a shortened manner.
The U.S. is governed by a presidential system. How come you guys are not headed towards a one man state?
Our civil society is extremely powerful. We have 200 years of experience in democracy. Our democratic culture will not push us towards a one-man's state, because we have mechanisms which balance the system.
We, too, have mechanisms which balance the system. Even though coups have suspended it at times, we insist on trying democracy. We come from the Ottoman Empire, a pluralistic structure. The Ottomans had a pluralistic system and a presidential system is more suitable for us, the existing parliamentarian system is not compatible with our fabric.
This time the roles are changing and now the opinion leader poses a question to the U.S. consul.
Do you have a problem with our president?
As the U.S. we do not have a problem, but he holds us responsible for some things. He thinks we cooperate with the Gülen Movement –also known as the parallel structure-
The Egyptian coup
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict
The Gülen Movement also thinks the U.S. contributes, but we do not have any connections with them. Fethullah Gülen is just a man who lives in the U.S.
At the end of this part of the dialogue, the opinion leader ends his talk by saying, “ Us Kurds and Turks will succeed. The resolution process will succeed and we will become a model for the Middle East.”
However, the consul makes a rather interesting remark:
“The fire in the Middle East cannot easily be extinguished. It will have repercussions in Turkey too and will smite it.”
This is a rather significant statement.
Since the Gezi incident, aren't all efforts about transferring the fire in the Middle East to Turkey?
