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Is a coalition being formed?

The AK Party and the Republican People's Party (CHP) committees will convene for the second time for coalition talks today. The committees filed an optimistic report to the leaders following the first meeting.



The CHP committee stated that the negotiations were proceeding on realistic grounds.



On the other hand, the AK Party committee is feeling that the talks were more positive than they had expected.



In the first round of talks, Davutoğlu and Kılıçdaroğlu left with favorable impressions. In our talk with Kılıçdaroğlu last week, he had said “We can establish a coalition with Mr. Davutoğlu but…”



Two attitudes proved effective for Kılıçdaroğlu to have trust in Davutoğlu.



1.In the elections to choose the new president for Turkey's radio and television watchdog (RTÜK), the issue of electing the new president by AK Party members - before the election of new deputies and the resignation of the current president- was on the agenda. Those who contacted the AK Party with Kılıçdaroğlu's orders were not successful in preventing this. Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu has allegedly informed the Prime Minister through a specific channel. In response to this, Davutoğlu clearly had said, “I will not allow such a thing” and did what was necessary.



2.During the first round of talks, Kılıçdaroğlu reminded about the oath-taking incident –following the 2011 elections-, brought up the protocol which was signed during the tenure of Cemil Çiçek as the parliamentary speaker and said, “Before even the ink of the protocol had dried, what a protocol; they will take their oaths one way or another. This put us in a different situation.” Davutoğlu responded to this by saying, “I was not the Prime Minister back then.”



It is an important stage for both leaders to overcome the issue of trust during the coalition talks.



With regards to the committees, there is an instruction given by both leaders to the committees. “Do not waste time with issues that cannot be overcome. Leave it for the leaders.”



Despite the fact that the committees have political missions, they will carry out technical work. Leaders, rather than committees will decide on the coalition.



The AK Party and CHP committees will convene for a second time today. The first starting point will be the constitution and democratization. It is a good start. In the first round of talks, everything had been talked about and criticisms, differences in policies were put on the table. Primarily, a cultivated debate has taken place regarding the issue of the constitution.



Meanwhile, a few steps which brought the two parties together have been taken. The first support for the Prime Minister's call for a mutual declaration came from Kılıçdaroğlu. The Prime Minister thanked CHP's leader in his speech. On the other hand, Davutoğlu supported the CHP's call for an extraordinary parliamentary meeting. Therefore, a climate of mutual trust was created.



However, the actual progress took place because of the new atmosphere that Turkey has entered.



The Suruç massacre did not only change the chemistry of Turkey –by cross-border operations against ISIL and PKK- but it also changed the chemistry of politics.



The CHP, which would bring up the issue of Turkey's policy in Syria and the fight against ISIL as a problem, will now want to be a coalition partner to support the fight against ISIL. That is the impression I got from CHP lobbies. The party withdrew its members of the youth wing who were going to Suruç. It blocked party administrators from participating in the prohibited “peace rally.” Of course, it is impossible for all of these to be done without the knowledge of Kılıçdaroğlu.



The CHP leader demonstrates his position by saying, “We will shoulder responsibility.”



The new process that we entered under the scope of the fight against ISIL and PKK is evaluated in quite a different manner in the eyes of CHP. I would like to reflect this.



Those who defended the idea of a coalition with the AK Party until now said: “The June 7 elections made a coalition mandatory. Our initial preference was the formation of a government by the opposition bloc. We even offered the seat of the prime minister, but this failed because of the Nationalist Movement Party's (MHP) attitude. We have to form a coalition for the sake of not leaving Turkey without a government and to balance the AK Party's policies.” With the new process, “the continuity of the state” replaced political preference. The new approach of the CHP, -which sees itself as the founding party of the Republic- is as follows: “The concept of fighting ISIL and PKK changed the chemistry of politics. Until now, a coalition with the AK Party was a matter of political preference. However, because of the new situation, this has become a necessity for the survival of the state.”



There are two crucial reasons for this, from the CHP front:



1.The fight against ISIL and change in Syria policy is important for us. We defended the idea that ISIL should be fought against, not just the regime. This point has been reached with the operation against ISIL.



2.We said that the resolution process should be the job of the parliament. President Erdoğan said that the resolution was being exploited, and indicated a similar address.



Thus, two important issues are no longer problems, and became the justification for a coalition. The new conjuncture requires a new approach to politics.



I had stated this before, but I looked it up again following the first round of talks.



CHP sees the position of the President and the December 17-25 files as the job of the parliament, rather than the coalition. This was not brought up during the talks held between technical committees anyway.



Everything is fine up until this point. But there are colossal obstacles in front of this work. Two parties who have been struggling against each other for years are trying to form a government by coming together.



If the AK Party-CHP coalition is unsuccessful, then central politics in Turkey will collapse, and the MHP and pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) will be strengthened. We experienced this in the 1990s. In reality, the CHP and AK Party's destinies are somewhat similar to one another. If the central parties grow, the votes of both parties increase. And if the central parties shrink, then their votes decrease. The total amount of AK Party and CHP votes in the 2011 elections was 75.8. This receded back to 65.9 in the 2015 elections.



And then there are the inner-parliamentary balances. The AK Party does not only have to ensure who it will form a coalition with, but also prevent the formation of an opposition block in the parliament. The AK Party has 258, while the coalition has 292 deputies in total. In the case that the AK Party pulls the CHP towards itself with a coalition, the majority that will change the constitution will be on the side of the government.



Meanwhile, a segment in AK Party wants to push for a coalition with the MHP due to the effective operations carried out against PKK. If Bahçeli stretches regarding this matter, then relations may be revived. A coalition is a work of calculation.



The AK Party-CHP committees will conduct their work, and Davutoğlu and Kılıçdaroğlu will meet alone later on. However, the real issue is about political will.



The political pendulum goes back and forth between coalition and early elections.



Turkey is closer to a coalition compared to a week before, but early elections also weigh on the agenda.



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